A day after US President Donald Trump declared that the operation against Iran is likely to last a month, prediction market platform Polymarket, which is based on wisdom of the crowd (and sometimes also insider information), presents a picture that fits this assessment, and perhaps is even more pessimistic than it.
At this stage, more than $4 million has already been ‘bet’, but the data really does not show a clear picture: the chance of a ceasefire by March 6 is 7% – a sharp drop from 28% from yesterday. 20% of investors say the war will be over by March 15.
46% see the war over by the end of March and another 21% by the end of April. In one month, the probability jumps by 21% as punters see a critical window of time in April. This may reflect the time required for a new government to form in Iran that can negotiate. At the same time, this may reflect increasing US pressure to end the war before oil prices begin to hurt the US economy. Or perhaps simply because a month and a half is the realistic minimum time required to end a campaign of this magnitude.
Is the Iranian regime on the verge of collapse? Not before June
Polymarket data addresses several key questions that the market is currently trying to price in the Middle East campaign. The most burning question is who will be Iran’s next supreme leader: Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the revolution, leads with 22%. Another question that preoccupies punters is when the new leader will be announced: 9% indicate that it will be today (March 2), compared with 49% who believe by March 6. Either way, the market expects an announcement in the coming days.
Another crucial question: Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Here the market is pricing in 42% – an exceptionally high figure, reflecting the expectation that the elimination of the leadership will lead to eventual collapse. At the same time, the chance of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked stands at 37% by the end of March and 41% by the end of June – a threat that the market takes seriously but does not see as certain.
Another issue preoccupying the predictive market is: Will Reza Pahlavi, the heir apparent and eldest son of the former Shah, who went into exile with his parents to the US following the Iranian revolution, enter Iran? 8% say by the end of March, 27% say by the end of June. Unlikely, but quite possible.
In an interview with the Daily Mail, Trump revealed the planned timeline for the campaign against the ayatollahs’ regime. “It’s a four-week process,” the president said. “We thought it would take about four weeks – maybe less.”
Trump stressed that the operation was proceeding according to plan and even added that the results so far had exceeded expectations. According to him, US and Israeli forces had killed dozens of senior figures in the Iranian regime. “A lot more than we thought,” he added.
Published by Globes, Israel business news – en.globes.co.il – on March 2, 2026.
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd., 2026.
