How long will mortgage rates remain in the mid- to upper-6% range? Mortgage interest rates are determined by many factors, a major one being the 10-year Treasury yield. At Yahoo Finance, we’ve designed a five-year mortgage rate forecast, built on a 10-year yield correlation, that provides some insight.
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Mortgage rate forecasts might best be derived from 10-year Treasury note trends. While the two rates often track in the same direction, there is a spread between them that we will account for below.
First, let’s understand where Treasury yields are headed in the next five years. We’ll combine human analysis with data pulled from artificial intelligence to put together a prediction.
Michael Wolf is a global economist at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd. In June, the Deloitte Global Economics Research Center issued an updated U.S. economic forecast in which Wolf laid out the firm’s Treasury yield expectations over the next five years.
“We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to hover near 4.5% for the remainder of this year, despite a softening in economic data and a 50-basis-point cut from the Fed in the fourth quarter of 2025,” he wrote. “The 10-year Treasury yield begins to decline slowly in 2026, falling to 4.1% by 2027 and remaining there through the end of 2029.”
Let’s chart that forecast.
That’s not much movement. Goldman Sachs analysts agree, saying the 10-year Treasury will remain near 4.1% through 2027.
Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts the Treasury yield to be 4.1% by the end of 2025, down to 4% in 2026 and remaining near 3.9% through 2029.
Dig deeper: When will mortgage rates go down?
As we mentioned up top, the 10-year Treasury and 30-year fixed mortgage rates are separated by a spread. That difference between the two has been on either side of 2.5 percentage points in recent years. That’s a significant change when compared to the spread from 2010 to 2020 when it was under two percentage points — and often near 1.5.
Using a 2.5 percentage point spread, here’s an example of how Treasurys and mortgage rates compare:
10-year Treasury rate = 4%
Spread = 2.5 percentage points
Mortgage rates = 6.5%
Here’s a recent example: On Aug. 14, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.23%, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.63%. The spread was 6.58 – 4.29 = 2.29 percentage points.
The latest version of artificial intelligence, GPT-5, suggested using a spread of 2.1 to 2.3 percentage points. Here is its rationale:
Historical standard (2010s): ~1.7 pp
Recent years (2022 to 2025): ~2.6 pp
Estimated 5-year average spread: ~2.1 to 2.3 percentage points
Using these spread estimates, we can now complete our five-year mortgage rate forecast.
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Using the Treasury forecast from above, we add the spread between the bond market and 30-year fixed mortgage rates to compile a five-year forecast:
Learn more: When will mortgage rates go back down to 6%?
Of course, these are long-range estimates based on historical norms and broad expectations. All of these numbers could be thrown out the window if any of the following happens:
10-year Treasurys outperform or underperform the forecast. For example, yields could crash in a severe economic setback, such as a recession.
The spread between Treasurys and mortgage rates narrows — or dramatically expands.
Monetary policy, as driven by the Federal Reserve, substantially changes.
There is no forecast that predicts a 3% mortgage rate in the next five years. However, who saw such low home loan rates on the horizon in 2007 when rates were about where they are now? Things like the Great Recession and a global pandemic are rarely on the radar, and such black swan events are what it takes to move mortgage rates into the cellar.
Based on the estimates above, rates are not expected to drop significantly in the next five years. However, a recession or other unknown disruption to the economy (such as a financial collapse or pandemic) could change the outlook.
If you are considering an adjustable-rate mortgage with an initial fixed-rate period, you’ll first want to consider how long you’ll actually remain in the house you are financing. Then the long-term mortgage rate forecasting begins. The best idea is probably to choose the initial term that best fits your current budget.
The analysis above predicts 2027 mortgage rates to be around 6.2% to 6.4%.
Laura Grace Tarpley edited this article.
