The share of individual income tax filers who received refunds this year declined to 62.6% from 64%, according to Internal Revenue Service data released Friday. The average refund size increased, however, rising 1.6% to $3,052 from $3,004.
The data cover tax filings through Oct. 17, including returns filed in mid-October. Income tax payments for the prior year are due by mid-April but taxpayers can get automatic extensions of tax filing, meaning that they can wait to submit their forms until mid-October. More than 10% of taxpayers file that way, including many high-income people with complex returns.
Tax analysts expect an unusual surge of refunds in the next tax-filing season, which starts in early 2026. That’s because of the tax cuts that Congress passed and President Trump signed in the “one big, beautiful bill” in July. Many of those changes take effect for tax year 2025, including a larger deduction for state and local taxes, a bigger child tax credit and new tax breaks for tipped workers, overtime pay and people age 65 and over.
