Import-dependent economies, it said, would face tighter availability of fuel, food and industrial inputs. Disruptions to fertilizer supply chains could lower crop yields and push up food prices, increasing affordability risks.
India sourced 43% of its petroleum and petroleum products from GCC countries, Iraq and Iran in 2024, compared with 84% by Japan, 67% by Korea, and 42% by China. “Producers with significant assets in Japan, Korea, India and China are most exposed because of their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil and the dominance of naphtha – an oil-derived product – as the primary feedstock for Asia’s steam crackers,” said Moody’s Ratings.
It noted that a prolonged conflict could push Brent crude to about $135 per barrel in the second quarter, keeping prices above $100 for months before easing toward $90 by end-2026. It identified three key transmission channels for global credit risk, that is, energy markets and supply chains, tighter macro-financial conditions, and broader geopolitical disruptions.
