1. Survey sees economy growing a tad slower
GDP growth seen in a 6.1-6.8% range with a 6.5% base case
2. …but set to regain the status of fastest growing major economy as the world slows sharply
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“The Economic Survey presents a comprehensive analysis of India’s growth trajectory including the global optimism towards our nation, focus on infra, growth in agriculture, industries and emphasis on futuristic sectors”
3. Multiple drivers supporting 6.5% growth and lifting medium-term potential to 7-8%Rebound in private consumption, buoyant servicesIncrease in capacity utilisationHealthy corporate, bank balance sheetsSlowing inflation, recovery in credit cycleRecovery in private sector investmentLimited risk from China’s Covid surge; normalising supply chainsCessation of monetary tightening leading to return of capital flows
“#EconomicSurvey2023 reaffirms that a seasoned captain PM @narendramodi has smoothly navigated the economy through the rocky waters of the pandemic. When the world is suffering a slowdown, growth and optimism in all sectors show that India is set to emerge as a global superpower”
4. Some immediate risksRecession in advanced economiesOngoing monetary tightening in developed marketsStill higher -than-normal commodity prices and slowing exportsCurrency may weaken if current account deficit widensWeakness in markets, uncertain monsoon5. Policy PrescriptionContinue with fiscal prudenceCheck on current account deficitContinue vigil on inflationAggressive monetisation and privatisationA critical minerals policy Incentivise states for reformsDismantle LIC – Licensing, Inspection & ComplianceEducation and skilling to match industry requirements