September WTI crude oil (CLU25) on Tuesday closed down -1.07 (-1.69%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU25) closed down -0.0097 (-0.46%).
Crude oil prices retreated on Tuesday on signs of progress in Ukraine peace talks, which could pave the way for fewer restrictions on Russian crude exports. Tuesday’s stronger dollar also weighed on crude prices.
Signs of progress in peace talks over the Ukraine war are weighing on crude prices. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said late Monday that he came away with a commitment from President Trump to join security guarantees for any peace deal and reserve discussion on territorial swaps with Russia for later. President Trump is pushing for a summit between Presidents Putin and Zelenskiy soon. Any resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian war could be bearish for crude prices, as an end to the war could mean allowing Russian crude to trade freely and could lead to an end to sanctions on Russian energy exports.
Concern about higher OPEC production is weighing on crude prices after OPEC+ on August 2 endorsed an additional 547,000 bpd increase in its crude production for September 1. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. OPEC+ has 1.66 million bpd of supplies that are currently due to remain offline until late 2026. OPEC July crude production fell by -20,000 bpd to 28.31 million bpd.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -12% w/w to 82.49 million bbl in the week ended August 15.
The consensus is that Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventories will fall by -850,000 bbl, and gasoline supplies will decline by -325,000 bbl.
Last Wednesday’s weekly EIA report showed that US crude oil inventories rose +3.04 million bbls to a 2-month high in the week ended August 8. The weekly EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of August 8 were -5.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +0.25% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -15.45% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending August 8 rose by +0.3% y/y to 13.327 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd posted in the week of 12/6/2024.
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