October Gold futures were trading at Rs 1,09,180 on the MCX around 6:40 pm, down by Rs 190 or 0.17%. On the COMEX, the prices were flat at $3,685.60 per troy ounce, though with a slight negative bias.
Gold got support as markets price in a possible 50 bps Fed rate cut after weaker jobs and payroll data while trade tariff uncertainty underpins the safe-haven demand, said Jateen Trivedi, Vice President, Research Analyst at LKP Securities, commenting on the current trends. He sees the current prices as stretched, raising the possibility of consolidation.
Among the domestic factors, Indian rupee remains a key. Its continued weakness against the dollar has been supporting the bullion prices.
1) Key support & resistance
Gold October futures traded firm but faced resistance near Rs 1,09,700–1,09,900. On the downside, key support lies at Rs 1,08,850 followed by Rs 1,08,300. A decisive move above Rs 1,09,900 could extend gains towards Rs 1,10,400, while a slip below Rs 1,08,850 may invite short term selling pressure.
2) RSI
RSI (14) is at 50.77, indicating consolidation after an overbought phase. This neutral zone suggests the market is cooling off, and strength will be confirmed only if RSI trends higher above 60.
3) Bollinger bands
Prices are moving closer to the mid-band after testing the upper band. The narrowing bands point toward consolidation in the near term, though expansion could reignite volatility.
4) Moving averages
EMA-8 and EMA-21 are flatlining with price hovering around them, confirming a consolidation phase. Sustained trade above EMA-8 (Rs 1,09,300) will keep short-term bullish momentum intact.
5) MACD
MACD is still in positive territory but has flattened out, with the histogram narrowing. This suggests loss of momentum, hinting at sideways to corrective price action before the next directional move.
Gold trading strategy
Gold has entered a consolidation zone after a sharp rally, but fundamentals remain supportive. A buy on dips strategy is advisable for the week. Buy near Rs 1,08,850 for targets of Rs 1,09,900/1,10,400 and a stop loss of Rs 1,07,450.
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