A surging wave of home-sale cancellations is tilting the balance in the housing market from sellers to buyers. In June 2025, nearly 15% of pending home sales fell through, per Redfin, a record high for June data stretching back to 2017. The contract cancellations are concentrated in the Sun Belt states like Florida and Texas that have powered housing since the pandemic housing boom. The consequences of contract cancellations reach beyond individual buyers and sellers to builders, agents, and the broader economy.
Just over 57,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled in June, Redfin found, which is nearly 15% of homes that went under contract that month. This cancellation rate is up from 13.9% the previous June. The trend is evident nationwide, but especially pronounced in Sun Belt cities including Jacksonville, Florida, Las Vegas, and Atlanta, which are recording cancellation rates near or above 20%. High interest rates, high insurance costs, and high property taxes have also affected cancellation rates, according to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic).
A buyers’ market or something else?
Some factors favoring buyers have improved. Inventory is up—Zillow finds 1.36 million homes on the market in June, the most since late 2019—while demand has softened. With more choices and less competition, buyers can afford to be more selective, with Zillow finding the share of listings with a price cut hitting 26.6% in June, the highest monthly mark in Zillow records dating back through 2018, and near the all-time high of 27% from September 2022.
Sellers have also started yanking properties from the market that aren’t selling at a price they think is worth it; delistings skyrocketing 47% year-over-year in June, according to Realtor.com.
“What we’re seeing nationally is a market that’s gradually rebalancing, with buyers gaining leverage and sellers facing a tradeoff: Adjust to the market and sell for less, or hold out and risk sitting indefinitely,” Realtor.com Senior Economist Jake Krimmel previously told Fortune. “Many sellers still aren’t pricing to sell.”
Another difference from pandemic buying conditions is fewer buyers are waiving inspection and appraisal contingencies. Now they’re being used as opportunities to renegotiate or walk away if (and when) problems arise.
It’s not a full-blown buyers’ market, though, as anxiety over the broader economy has many would-be homeowners thinking twice. Several factors are contributing to financial jitters. Mortgage rates remain stubbornly high at around 6.8%, keeping monthly payments near historic peaks, the median national sale price is still at record highs, and buyer confidence is challenged by macro uncertainty related to tariffs, inflation, and fears of a potential recession. In fact, a recent LegalShield survey shows 70% of homeowners and prospective buyers worry a potential recession and tariffs could disrupt their housing plans.
Many discover the monthly payments, once fully calculated, are simply too much to bear and back out at the last minute. Others are hoping for prices—or rates—to drop soon and choose to wait it out. For the first time in years, realtors report buyers are negotiating harder. Sellers, for their part, are now more willing to make concessions, from price reductions to agreeing to costly repairs. This shifting balance is giving buyers more room to shop around and less incentive to stick with a deal if it’s anything less than perfect.
Headwinds in Florida and Texas
Florida and Texas, often the leaders in home sales during the last five years, are now leading in rates of cancellation. Several local factors are at play, from the influx of newly built homes increasing available inventory to soaring insurance premiums, especially in disaster-prone regions. These are a drag on the housing market generally and are playing into cancellations as some potential buyers are abandoning deals after receiving quotes.
Across the Sun Belt, inventory is tilting the playing field, with single-family home inventory up 32% year-over-year in some metros. In certain cities, the months’ supply of homes (inventory-to-sales ratio) has ballooned to nine to 12 months, well above the six-month threshold for a balanced market.
Florida had the largest number of homes for sale in the U.S. as of June 2025. Active listings have spiked, with Central Florida posting its highest home inventory levels in 15 years. This has pushed median home prices down about 2%–3% compared to 2024, and more dramatically in some markets, such as Sarasota. The national housing market may not be in a buyers’ market per se, but that is the vibe in Florida, as many sellers make price cuts or offer concessions, competing for a smaller buyer pool. In Texas, active listings are hitting record highs in some markets, such as Houston, while the median price is also seeing a slight decline, similar to Florida.
As of June 2025, both the Florida and Texas housing markets are facing headwinds, marked by rising inventory, increased price reductions, longer selling timelines, and shifting leverage toward buyers. This softening trend is pronounced throughout the Sun Belt, reflecting a transition away from the frenzied pandemic-era market.
The road ahead
Florida, Texas, and the broader Sun Belt markets are all contending with oversupply, softer pricing, and a shift toward buyer-friendly conditions. After years of strong gains, 2025 has brought a market reset, fueled by cooling migration, higher rates, and the lingering effects of pandemic-era overbuilding. In these regions, buyers now have more choice and negotiating power, while sellers face increasing competition and subdued price growth.
“Homes are sitting on the market nearly three weeks longer than last year,” Realtor.com’s Krimmel said. “That’s a sign of sellers still anchored to pandemic-era prices even though the market is telling them otherwise.”
Market watchers don’t expect a quick reversal. Prices are forecast to dip slightly by the end of 2025, but mortgage rates are predicted to hold nearly steady. For now, home-sale cancellations are likely to remain elevated, requiring all market participants to adapt to an era of higher uncertainty—and, for savvy buyers, greater opportunity.
For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.
