Samco’s 3-year target for gold is $7,040 while silver can trade anywhere between $140-210.
Edited excerpts from a chat with the market expert on why the gold and silver bull run isn’t over yet:
Samco was among the first to have given bullish calls on silver which has played out very well. Do you think the white metal has topped out and won’t go back above the $100-mark anytime soon?
We were the first ones to call out a bull market in silver back when it was trading around $23/troy ounce. Silver still remains a high conviction idea with a bullish outlook for the long term. The fundamentals of the silver market which drove the prices from $23 to $121 haven’t changed much. Silver is entering its sixth consecutive year of structural deficit due to inelastic by-product supply and surging demand from solar energy and electric vehicles.
Despite the sharp correction, silver is still outperforming gold. China has classified silver as a strategic asset, restricting exports and driving Shanghai physical premiums to record highs. Silver prices in Shanghai are still quoting at a premium of around $91 compared to $75 in the US. We believe that recent price dips are strategic buying opportunities for a secular bull market that has not yet peaked.One view in the market is that gold will outperform silver in 2026 and that appears to be playing out as well. What do you think?The gold to silver ratio had dipped to a low of 43 in January 2026. Over the last 12 years the level of 65 has acted as strong support for the ratio. A falling ratio means gold is underperforming silver and vice versa. Over the last 6 months silver was playing catch up with gold as it was massively undervalued compared to gold which was also one of the reasons for being bullish on silver. Now that silver has caught up and probably even went slightly ahead in terms of outperformance, we are seeing a role reversal and gold will take leadership while silver consolidates.Any targets that you have for both gold and silver?Ever since gold broke out above the sideways consolidation in December 2023 we have been talking of these three levels – 2,608, 3335, 4750. These are Fibonacci projections drawn from September 2011 peak to December 2015 bottom in gold. The next extension level that comes after this is $7,040. This is a 3-year target that we are holding for gold. Silver normally trades at 2-3% the price of gold in precious metals bull run. So if gold trades at $7,040 then silver could trade anywhere between $140-210 in the same period.
For many investors, asset allocation is going for a toss as equity is struggling and bullion is leading to FOMO. Would you go on the extent of recommending a 50:50 allocation to precious metals and equity for someone who is moderately aggressive but has a 4-5 year horizon?
It cannot happen that you give a 50:50 allocation to equities and gold once and forget about it for the next 4-5 years. Asset allocation will have to be much more dynamic and tactical depending on the macro developments and the investor’s own risk profile. So for someone with an appetite for risk the allocation goes as high as 50% but it may not be suitable for everyone.
If the de-dollarisation theory, linked to rising US debt level, plays out, then we could be seeing a multi-year bull run in gold. What are the odds of that happening from a macro perspective?US debt currently stands at $39 trillion. According to certain projections, the US is going to add $2.4 trillion in debt each year for the next 10 years. This will push the US debt to $64 trillion by 2036. The US currently spends more than a trillion dollars per year to service this debt. US interest expense and gold price are positively correlated. If the US pays more interest on its debt then naturally it will flood the monetary system with dollars which has been losing its purchasing power over the years.
Richard Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard on 15 August 1971. Gold prices have grown with a CAGR of 9% since then. If this rate of growth were to continue then gold will trade above $10,000 by 2036.
WGC data shows that central banking buying of gold slowed down in 2025 in volume terms. Is the central bank to gold what FIIs are to Indian largecap stocks?Central banks bought gold to the tune of 1080 tonnes in 2022, 1050 tonnes in 2023, 1092 tonnes in 2024 and 863 tonnes in 2025. There is a drop of 20% in 2025 compared to 2024. Now compare this with investment demand in gold during the same period: 1125 tonnes in 2022, 951 tonnes in 2023, 1185 tonnes in 2024 and 2175 tonnes in 2025. The demand from investment has nearly doubled. So, although buying has slowed down I don’t think this is going to be a major hurdle for gold prices.
What makes you believe that the entire commodity basket, and not just precious metals, will see a supercycle? Help us understand how the rally in gold, silver and even copper for that matter can spill over to impact oil and gas?Gold is the leader of all commodities because it responds first to monetary debasement and inflation expectations. Historically, oil lags gold. In the past reflationary cycles of 1971-80 and 2000-2008 too gold led the rally and oil participated later. The current degree of oil’s underperformance relative to gold is unprecedented, suggesting oil is poised for a massive catch-up phase. We believe that we are in a commodity supercycle which is driven by a shift towards hard assets from soft assets. This cycle transcends precious metals because systematic underinvestment has created structural deficits across the entire commodity basket.
For someone who wants to play the commodity or precious metals boom via the equity route, do you think commodity exchange, gold financers, oil producers and miners can also see significant upside?All of the above are leveraged plays to benefit from the commodity basket. Take gold miners for example. Vaneck Gold Miners ETF tracks the world’s largest gold mining companies. Gold has moved up by 146% since 1st January 2024 but the ETF has moved up by 234% in the same period. So one can definitely ride the commodity supercycle indirectly through the routes you listed above.
Can proxy investing via the equity route beat the returns of owning the commodity itself as operating leverage would be on the side of existing players?Proxy investing through equities can outperform the underlying commodity because miners and producers have operating leverage. A 10% rise in the commodity price can translate into a much larger increase in earnings due to fixed costs. However, equity returns also embed management risk, capital allocation discipline, debt levels, and valuation multiples, which can dilute that advantage.
