Globes poll of polls: Eisenkot gains at Bennett's expense

Globes poll of polls: Eisenkot gains at Bennett’s expense

“Globes” poll of polls is back. Israel is going to elections, and “Globes” is following the campaign through the latest polls from the leading media outlets and examining who is strengthening, who is weakening and who is hovering around the four-seat threshold.

In all polls, Likud maintains its position as the largest party, and on average it wins 25 seats. The real story right now is the battle to be the second largest party, with a tie at the top for the first time this week: both the Beyachad (Together) Party led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid and the Yashar Party led by Gadi Eisenkot winning an average of 19 seats each.

Four parties wins 9 seats each: the Democrats (Yair Golan), Shas, Otzma Yehudit – Jewish Power (Itamar Ben-Gvir) and Yisrael Beiteinu. United Torah Judaism wins 7, the Joint List (Hadash, Ta’al and Balad) 6, Ra’am 5 and Religious Zionism receives 4 seats in most polls. Blue and White led by Benny Gantz and the Reservists led by Yoaz Hendel do not pass the threshold.

What is the conclusion? In a bloc-based distribution, the coalition wins 53 seats and the opposition 67. However, the opposition bloc also includes 11 seats from the Arab parties. This means that the non-Arab opposition parties only reach 56 seats, so they alone will still have difficulty forming a government.

Behind the numbers: In most polls, the opposition bloc wins 67 to 70 seats, with the Arab parties (the Joint List and Ra’am) receiving a combined 10 seats. On Channel 12, the opposition stands at 69, on Maariv at 70, on Yisrael Hayom 67 and on Zham Israel 70. The two more “optimistic” polls from the opposition’s perspective reflect a fall below the threshold for the Religious Zionist Party (as in the Zman Israel poll) or a strengthening of the parties BeyadBeyahad, Yashar and the Democrats at the expense of Likud and Shas (as in the Maariv poll).

The poll that again presents a significant difference from the rest is the Channel 14 poll – in which the coalition wins a majority of 63 seats. In the past month, in Channel 14 polls, the coalition parties are standing at 63 seats – after a trend of weakening, as in the same poll the coalition reached 66 seats less than two months ago.

The election campaign is still looking for a “gamechanger” – a development that will bring about a change in the bloc division.

Average poll result

Likud – 25 seats

Beyachad – 19

Yashar – 19

Shas – 9

Democrats – 9

Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) – 9

Yisrael Beitenu – 9

United Torah Judaism – 7

Joint Arab list – 6

Ra’am 5