2028 Will Be All About Race for the DNC

It was the state that catapulted former President Joe Biden to the nomination – and ultimately the presidency – in 2020, delivering him a clean sweep of delegates just prior to his undignified withdrawal in 2024. Now it seems that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is determined to use that South Carolina magic once more to shape the tone (and naturally the choice of candidate) of the 2028 proving ground.

The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee voted last week in favor of keeping the Palmetto State as the first-in-the-nation contest for prospective presidential candidates. While this still has to be approved at next month’s meeting, there appears to be little appetite for changing course at this point. After all, if a party intends to make its bid based on race, why would majority-white states such as New Hampshire and Ohio even make a difference?

2028 a Colorful Pageant

The primary proposal seeks to follow South Carolina with Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia, and then, of course, Super Tuesday. By this point, it will likely be all over, bar the shouting.

“You’re the reason I’m president,” crowed Joe Biden to the mostly black SC crowds on the campaign trail in 2024. “You’re the reason Donald Trump is a loser, and you’re the reason we’re gonna win and beat him again.” The Democratic Party has rarely been shy in promoting the importance and impact of the race of its potential voters – unless that bloc happens to be white.

The move to enshrine Biden’s words in the DNC DNA sends one clear signal: The 2028 contest will elevate ethnicity to a rallying point, certain to be applauded by blue voters and pundits in the legacy media. And yet, as is often the case, the anti-racist, pro-black approach used by the political class is not quite as heroic or progressive as it seems at first blush.

Giving Black Voters a Chance

South Carolina is roughly 25% black. On the surface, this is easy to spin as the DNC giving a certain class of voters a bigger say when they have been historically marginalized. But the devil is in the details.

Free with the Daily Briefing

85Essays

Unravel the Constitution

Hamilton, Madison & Jay’s complete case for America, free and searchable in the Publius Reader.

Free with the Daily Briefing. Unsubscribe anytime.

If the party really wanted black voters to have a weighted early advantage in choosing the next president of the United States, it would look at states that have a higher percentage of “voters of color.” How about Mississippi? The Magnolia State is almost 38% black. Surely, if choosing a minority-heavy state is good, choosing a heavier one must be better. But that betrays the politics and the mythology of what is happening.

Mississippi (followed closely by Hawaii) tipped Jimmy Carter over the required 270 Electoral College votes in 1976, making him the 39th president; this was the closest EC tally since 1916, with Carter earning 297 to Ford’s 240. However, just four years later, Ronald Reagan took the state by one point. Since then, it has been reliably red, with a more than 20-point lead for Trump in 2024.

Are the black voices in Mississippi not as valuable as those in South Carolina? How about Louisiana, which is 33% black? Again, since the end of the Bill Clinton era, this has been reliably red. Georgia (also 33% black), despite a 0.2% swing to Biden in 2020, has been presidential red since 1996.

Bringing Back the Magic

South Carolina is also a red state in terms of presidential voting (solidly since 1980). But it’s also where Joe Biden pulled off his miracle comeback. He was the DNC-preferred candidate and essentially dead in the water politically until he received the Palmetto lifeline. And make no mistake, politics has its superstitions, as many and varied as any sports league.

With the Democratic Socialists of America gaining ground in deep-blue states across the country, the DNC faces a double threat in 2028: the GOP and the rise of the ultra-progressives. Either one of these groups could derail Democratic hopes of regaining power. Consider Kamala Harris and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez taking stripes out of each other – it would make superb television but almost certainly split the party enough to dampen the all-important turnout.

What the DNC needs is an early lock on a “moderate” candidate, and, for better or worse, South Carolina has become Xanadu for the power players.