After decades of ever increasing crime rates, the tide may finally be turning. While violent crime in some cities continues to move in the wrong direction, a new report shows that, nationwide, it’s actually decreasing. In fact, America may be on track to have the lowest homicide rate since 1900.
Homicide Drops to Historic Low
The Council on Criminal Justice released its recent report on crime in larger American cities and found that the incidents continued to fall during the first half of 2026, “with homicides down 18% from the same period in 2025 and 51% since the most recent peak in 2022, likely pushing the national homicide rate to a new historic low.” The results still need to be confirmed by the FBI, but the findings do indeed look promising.
The study focused on patterns for 13 crime types in 36 cities that continue to publish monthly data over the past nine years. During the first half of this year, many of the crime categories continued to decline. In fact, nine of the 13 crimes tracked were reported less often than during the same time in 2025. One of the biggest changes was carjackings, which were down 47%. But others climbed during this period: Drug offenses up 12%, and domestic violence rose by 8%.
The study then looked back to 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, and only one crime category, shoplifting, was higher this year so far compared to then, and it was only up by 5%. But homicide was down 51% from its 2022 peak, carjackings were down by 73% from a 2023 peak, residential burglaries dropped 56% since 2018, and vehicle thefts were down 51% since 2023.
Another interesting fact was what the report disclosed about violent crimes and how they were less likely to end in death. Among the 17 cities that provided enough data to study, the share of violent crimes that resulted in a homicide fell 23% compared with the first half of 2025, and was 20% lower than in the first half of 2019.
Pertaining to homicide, 21 of the 30 cities saw rates decrease, and some of the biggest winners were:
● Lincoln, Nebraska: 100% decrease (no homicides reported during the first half of 2026)
● Rochester, New York: 76% decrease
● Little Rock, Arkansas: 61% decrease
● Arlington, Texas: 60% decrease
● Colorado Springs, Colorado: 53% decrease
Unfortunately, eight cities saw a rise in homicides during this time including Norfolk, VA (64%), San Francisco, CA (55%), Dallas, TX (30%), and Salt Lake City, UT (20%).
What Drove the Decrease in Crime?
Everyone is eager to claim credit for homicide and other crime rates dropping across the nation, especially during primaries and gearing up for the 2028 presidential elections. But reality may not be as simple as one policy or law. Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, said:
“Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map, in cities with different political leadership, housing and economic conditions, policing and prosecution strategies, violence reduction models, and levels of federal enforcement activity. Local policies and programs surely matter, but the striking consistency of the decline suggests that macro-level forces are exerting enormous influence as well.”
Democrats toot their horns, pointing to social programs such as reform instead of prison while Republicans point to tough immigration laws and fighting against crime as reasons for this drop in homicide and other crime rates.
President Donald Trump mentioned the drop in murder rate in his State of the Union address in February: “And last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history,” he said. “This is the biggest decline, think of it, in recorded history. The lowest number in over 125 years – year 1900.”
Others also point to more people being armed. It’s a little more risky when you know someone might shoot you instead of trying to rob an unarmed victim. As Liberty Nation News Chief Political Correspondent Graham Noble wrote:
“Gun control advocates may argue that any link between increased gun carry and fewer violent crimes is purely anecdotal. But there are an awful lot of anecdotes. The number of incidents of ‘defensive gun use’ is estimated to be anywhere between 500,000 and three million times a year. In many cases, no shots were fired, but the mere revelation that the potential crime victim or a bystander was carrying a weapon acted as sufficient deterrence.”
For the study, the smallest city in the sample was Rochester, NY, with about 200,000 while the largest was New York, NY, with around 8.5 million residents.
