Quick Read
Intel (INTC) shares surged 186% year to date, but today’s Q2 earnings must confirm whether AI-driven CPU demand justifies the rally.
A potential Apple foundry deal and 36% projected DCAI revenue growth could validate Intel’s AI pivot if gross margins break above 41%.
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Investors are watching Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) ahead of second-quarter results due after Thursday’s close. Shares have run 185.77% year to date and 353.35% over the past year, but sit 21.3% below the June high.
An AI Rerating Meets a Reality Check
The setup this quarter is loaded. Last quarter, Intel posted non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 on revenue of $13.577 billion, a 7.18% year-over-year gain and the sixth straight quarter of revenue above expectations. Data Center and AI revenue jumped 22% to $5.052 billion, and Foundry grew 16% to $5.421 billion.
CEO Lip-Bu Tan told analysts that “the CPU is reinserting itself as the indispensable foundation of the AI era”, with the CPU-to-GPU ratio in inference workloads shifting from 1-to-8 toward 1-to-4. Analysts now expect the fastest quarterly revenue growth in about six years, driven by CPUs increasingly used to power AI agents.
Consensus Estimates Snapshot
Margins, Apple, and the PC Question
I’ll be watching three things closely. First, gross margin. TD Cowen analysts flagged that adjusted gross margin is expected around 38.8%, still pressured by heavy foundry investments and the costs of ramping new manufacturing processes. Any push above 41% would validate the operational leverage story.
Second, the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) angle. President Trump announced a potential deal in April for Intel to manufacture processors for Apple, though neither company has confirmed it. Any acknowledgment on the call would be a foundry watershed. Prediction markets already assign a 52% probability that Foundry revenue tops $6 billion.
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Third, the PC drag. Management is “prudently planning for PC demand to weaken in the second half”, with full-year PC unit TAM expected down low double digits. Client Computing grew just 1% last quarter, and you should look at whether that line stalls further while data center accelerates.
