GM expected to grow profits despite slowing sales: Q2 earnings preview

GM (GM) will report second-quarter results before the bell on Tuesday, with investors expecting the Big Three stalwart to keep growing profit, despite fewer sales. 

For the quarter, GM is expected to report Q2 revenue of $46.61 billion per Bloomberg consensus, down roughly 1% from the $47.1 billion GM posted a year ago. GM’s adjusted earnings per share is estimated at $3.19, with adjusted EBITDA of $5.65 billion. 

While not directly comparable, GM’s adjusted EBIT in Q2 last year came in at $3.0 billion — a figure weighed down heavily by tariff costs that are now easing, as tariff offsets take hold.

In addition to government offsets that are reducing its tariff bill, GM has spent the past year reworking its supply chain, shifting production, and negotiating with suppliers to blunt the tariff hit. 

That allowed GM to raise its full-year 2026 guidance when it reported first quarter results back in April.

For the full year, GM expects:

Adjusted EBIT of $13.5 billion-$15.5 billion

Adjusted earnings per share of $11.50-$13.50

Adjusted automotive free cash flow of $9 billion-$11 billion

But while tariffs easing will help its button line, the top line has been slipping.

GM sold approximately 715,000 vehicles in the US in the second quarter, a 4.2% decline from a year ago, though it held its position as the country’s top-selling automaker. 

The company said much of the drop came due to discontinued models like the Cadillac XT4 and XT6 and the Chevrolet Malibu, and on a sharp EV pullback following the expiration of the federal EV tax credit, which pulled demand forward into late 2025. 

Chevy Equinox EV sales fell 61.8%, the Blazer EV dropped 68.1%, and the GMC Hummer EV slid 56.8%. GM still gained EV market share, holding the No. 2 spot behind Tesla (TSLA) at an estimated 13.5% to 14%.

GM’s trucks and big SUVs helped soften the blow. GMC Sierra sales rose 5% to 95,147, a record quarter for the pickup, with overall light-duty pickup sales up 4%.

GM says it’s on pace to lead the full-size pickup segment for a seventh consecutive year with share near 42%. Crossovers helped too, with the Chevy Traverse up 19.5% and the Trailblazer up 28.4%.

Crucially for margins, GM said it did all of this without discounting. Average transaction prices topped $52,400 in the quarter, and the company says incentives have run below the industry average for three straight years.

But vehicle affordability remains a problem in the US, with elevated rates and record-high transaction prices hitting buyers. Tighter inventories have already dented full-size SUV sales, with the Tahoe down 8.1% and the Suburban off 20.4%.