A Democratic Super PAC is about to launch a $50 million advertising campaign targeting Republicans in more than a dozen races for the House and four for the Senate, mostly in rural GOP districts where the voters are largely working class. It seems like a big gamble, and perhaps it is. But several recent polls and in-person discussions with Trump supporters in rural America suggest blue-collar voters are souring on the president and his party, which means this might be an opportunity for Democrats to regain support of a demographic it ostensibly abandoned long ago.
A Disgruntled Working Class
American Bridge, the group that plans to spend $50 million on advertising in key congressional races, has reportedly spent the past year studying the concerns of the working class and their media consumption habits. Its research included a recent survey by the Democratic firm BlueLabs, which assessed voter sentiment in four key states: Iowa, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Many of the participants were Trump voters who now disapprove of him, as well as persuadable voters and people who consider themselves economically vulnerable. More than half of them in all four states believe the economy is worsening and blame Trump for it. More than 50% also blame the GOP, except in North Carolina (48%).
Voters expressed similar sentiments in the ten competitive House districts targeted by American Bridge, districts that Trump won in 2024. But the discontent with the economy and the president goes beyond these four states.
At a recent national convention in Minneapolis, union workers spoke to reporters from The Washington Post and shared their dissatisfaction about the president and his party. Many of them are Republicans who are tired of surging costs and say he isn’t delivering on most of his campaign promises. Sue Watanabe, a three-time Trump supporter, said that she disapproved of the Iran war and “Trump’s combative personality, but not enough to disavow him completely.”
Unions used to be a dependable force for helping the Democratic Party rally working-class voters. Many embraced Trump starting in 2016, though, and 45% of union households supported him in 2024, according to The Post’s exit polls. Unions will also be crucial in the races that American Bridge is targeting, especially since the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO) plans to mobilize 16 million voters from union households in the midterms.
But just because a handful of Trump supporters in this demographic disapprove of how the president has handled the economy doesn’t mean those voters will automatically switch sides this November. In March, Jared Abbott, a political scientist and the director of the Center for Working-Class Politics, published a survey of nearly two thousand Trump supporters. Less than a fifth of those who were uncertain about voting Republican in the future said they might vote for a Democrat. Most were either undecided or said they would support neither party. And there lies a bigger problem: political apathy.
“I don’t even want to vote for anybody in the next election,” Annette Dombrowski, a 64-year-old Ohio janitor who voted for Trump in 2024 and who has been a reliable voter in the midterms, told The Washington Post in May. “I don’t care, because they’re all crap.” This seems to be a growing sentiment.
When Voters Hate Both Parties
A May survey by Pew Research Center found that nearly 60% of Americans view both parties negatively. In a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll last month, more than 1,200 Americans described what they disliked about each party. The most common reasons participants disliked Democrats were that they are too far left, too focused on abortion, race, and LGBTQ issues. One independent voter said, “They are more in line with the communist and socialist parties.” Many called the Democratic Party spineless, weak, corrupt, and self-serving.
The top reason participants disliked the Republicans was their loyalty to Trump. One independent voter in New Jersey said Republicans “don’t think for themselves.” Other reasons mentioned were dishonesty, hypocrisy, immorality, and a lack of concern for ordinary people. Corruption and self-enrichment also topped the list.
The growing dislike of both parties is turning many voters into “double haters.” In an April CNN poll, nearly one-quarter of the public expressed a negative view of both parties and preferred the Democrats by 31 points in this year’s midterms. However, voting preferences of double haters were driven more by opposition to the GOP rather than enthusiasm for the Democrats. Still, none of this means these voters will actually swing left. In 2016, voters who had unfavorable views of both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton broke in Trump’s favor and did so again in 2024, according to CNN exit polls. In the 2022 midterms, when more than half of all voters viewed both parties negatively, double haters tilted heavily toward Republicans.
Though history often repeats itself, a lot has happened since Trump returned to the White House. It’s tough to judge which way the working class and the double haters will swing in the fall. Democrats certainly seem to have an opportunity, but it may take more than $50 million in advertisements to convince a disillusioned electorate that they are the answer to their economic woes. One thing that might be in their favor is that midterms are typically a referendum on the sitting president. This election, however, could be less about which party wins over the working class and more about which one loses fewer of them to disengagement.
