Why Can’t the US and Iran Close on an Agreement?

Is the dance between America and Iran interminable? Is the Trump administration falling into a forever fruitless negotiations trap with a maniacal regime in Tehran that has no intention of ever achieving closure in its talks with the US? President Donald Trump announced Saturday that Iran and the US were close – that the deal was mostly negotiated – but Iran states otherwise. Tehran sent a proposal for peace, but is making demands as if it had an effective army, navy, or air force. It does not. So, what are the stumbling blocks to a negotiated closure on a peace plan? The obvious reason is that Iranian leadership, principally the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is delusional regarding the untenable position in which they find themselves. They truly believe they have the upper hand.

Iran Faced an Effective Operation Project Freedom

What looked like a good plan for the conduct of Operation Project Freedom, in which US Navy vessels would escort US-flagged commercial oil tankers and cargo ships through the Strait of Hormuz, proved short-lived. It started on May 4 and was halted on May 5. On day one, US Central Command, the combatant command responsible for America’s presence in and around the Strait, posted on X that US guided-missile destroyers were supporting Project Freedom. The X post explained: “American forces are actively assisting efforts to restore transit for commercial shipping. As a first step, 2 US-flagged merchant vessels have successfully transited through the Strait of Hormuz and are safely headed on their journey.” It seemed like the operation was working as intended. 

Then came the flurry of small Boston Whaler-like boat attacks on commercial tankers attempting to transit the Strait, with some being hit by Iranian small arms and attack drones. Little damage was reported, and the US Navy destroyers, US Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, and Navy MH-60 Seahawk helicopters engaged and made short work of the Iranian attackers. As Admiral Brad Cooper explained in a May 4 media conference call, “We have defeated each and every one of those threats through the clinical application of defensive munitions.” Okay, things were progressing swimmingly. The enemy reacted to the passage of escorted ships in the Strait, and the US forces eliminated them. That’s what the US Navy, Army, and Air Force assets are in the region to do. 

On May 5, about 36 hours after the initiation of Project Freedom, President Trump called for a pause in the operation. In a Truth Social post, the US chief executive explained:

“Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.”

The ceasefire was implemented on April 8 and extended indefinitely on April 21. Except for random violence with defensive operations, a fragile truce has now lasted longer than the intense offensive strikes by the US and Israel on Iran’s war-making capability and leadership. In the interim, there have been diplomatic exchanges but no peace agreement acceptable to the US. Both countries have meetings and agree on some terms and conditions, then the Iranian negotiators return to Iran and repudiate everything to which they agreed. Tehran is steadfastly clinging to the fiction that it has negotiating leverage. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Iran Update Special Report, May 21, 2026: “Both US and Iranian officials said on May 21 that nuclear weapons and the Strait of Hormuz remain the two ‘sticking points’ on negotiations. Iranian officials appear divided over potential nuclear concessions, especially whether Iran should send its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile abroad.”

Iran believes it has total control over the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway, and the US and nations bordering the Strait are equally confident it does not. Iran has gone so far as to establish a regulatory organization to extort tolls from commercial vessels transiting the Hormuz Strait and has prohibited military vessels from entering. The freedom with which US Naval vessels move in and out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait establishes the fiction of Iranian thinking. Nonetheless, as the ISW points out, “Iran’s demands over the Strait of Hormuz demonstrate that Iranian officials believe they won the war because formalizing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz is a territorial claim on the sovereign territory of another country.” Iran’s position is silly. The United Arab Emirates and Oman have something to say about keeping the Strait of Hormuz open as an international transit route.

Tehran and the Extortion Business

The ISW observes that “Iran continues to attempt to build support for its protection racket in the Persian Gulf, in which vessels must pay, coordinate with, or receive permission from Iran’s preferred mechanism to transit the Strait of Hormuz in order to avoid attacks from Iranian forces.” The United States’ position is that US military forces in the region will engage what is left of the Iranian military so that Iran has no capability to attack anyone for any reason.

President Trump explained in a May 18 Truth Social post that in deference to the wishes of several Gulf State leaders, he has postponed a resumption of intense air attacks on Iran scheduled for May 19. He believes that “serious negotiations are now taking place” and that “a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond.” That deal will include “importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!” However, in the event that no agreement is forthcoming and, as many experts believe, Iran is just playing the US for time to rearm, the President has told the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Secretary of War “to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice.”

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