[Today’s Iran war post is launching before complete because I had really hoped not to have to write one today. Please come back at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version]
Today’s post will be telegraphic because the great unwashed public is reduced to drawing inferences from thin but very worrisome sightings. So a lot of what is presented below will be res ipsa loquitur, as in from tweets.
The overarching story is that the negotiations, which we said from the outset would fail, have failed. The US and Iran are at loggerheads on two major issues. One is the status of Iran’s enriched uranium, which the US wants in its possession while Iran has said it will not leave the country. Mind you, there are other outtrades on nuclear issues but this one is the high profile one now. Second is control of the Strait of Hormuz which Iran is refusing to cede.
The Iran side is saying further negotiations are pointless, given Trump’s timing demands:
“The differences between Iran and the United States are so deep and extensive that it cannot be said we must necessarily reach a result after a few rounds of visits or negotiations within a few weeks,” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Friday. https://t.co/DYRWXiR1Kk
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) May 22, 2026
The Iranians are even becoming borderline rude in making clear how frustrating it is to deal with US negotiation incompetence:
سخنگوی وزارت خارجه: درباره اورانیوم غنیشده مواضعمان را روشن بیان کردهایم
در این مرحله اگر بخواهیم در این مباحث گفتوگو کنیم قاعدتاً به نتیجه نمیرسیم
ما قبلا این مسیر را رفتیم و اختلافنظرها آنقدر زیاد بود که نتوانستیم به نتیجه برسیم و طرف مقابل با حمله به ایران جنایت کرد
— خبرگزاری تسنیم – خبر فوری (@Tasnimbrk) May 22, 2026
Translated from PersianForeign Ministry Spokesman: We have clearly expressed our positions regarding enriched uranium
At this stage, if we want to engage in discussions on these matters, we will naturally not reach a conclusion
We have previously taken this path, and the disagreements were so extensive that we could not arrive at a result, and the opposing side committed a crime by attacking Iran
Iran has made clear it expects reparations from Gulf States + Jordan:
Note that even though the resumption-of-Iran-war drums are beating loudly, Mario Nawfal in conversation with former Lt. Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski in a video clip further down in this post, suggests that Trump might attack Cuba to achieve an easy win. But the problem with that at most buys time in the conflict with Iran when time is not on Trump’s side. And Nawfal was providing incoming information snippets during the discussion Moreover, Chas Freeman, who has participated in negotiations with Cuba, in a fresh talk with Nima, gives creedence to the Cuban government promise that if the US tries to invade, it will be a bloodbath.
The US Navy has also made a belated admission of what is widely recognized: it cannot being to do Tanker Wars 2.0 and escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz:
🚢🇺🇸🇮🇷 “If we try to provide escort servises to ship in the Strait of Hormuz, that’s a very challenging mission in this narrow strait, when it’s contested. It’s not something that’s easy to do.
It EXCEEDS the capacity of the Navy to do it effectively. We’ll have to wait until… pic.twitter.com/MCU7ouJgTd
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) May 22, 2026
And Iran’s ambassador to France has said Iran wants to set up a permanent tolling system:
However, I have seen no evidence that Oman is taking this plan up. Oman, unlike Iran, is a signatory to UNCLOS, the law of the sea treaty that requires states to grant safe passage through what would otherwise be internal to provide states beyond the choke-point with naval transit. Consistent with Oman not being on board (yet? ever?), Iran’s maps showing its Strait of Hormuz zone of control routinely extend to the Oman and UAE coast, basically saying that formalities like territorial waterways count for little if you have a big enough stock of drones and fast boats.
Now to updates:
BREAKING: Trump has just cancelled his Trump National Golf Club trip this weekend and officially cancelled attending his son’s wedding, citing “circumstances pertaining to Government” and an “important period of time,” choosing to remain at the White House for the entire…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) May 22, 2026
Donald Trump said he won’t be attending his son’s wedding this weekend. You know the one named after him. My guess is if Miriam Adelson wanted him somewhere, he’d find a way to make it happen. But this might be because Miriam has already ordered him to focus on Iran this weekend.
— Cenk Uygur (@cenkuygur) May 22, 2026
Note that the Donald Jr. was married before and had five children with that wife. Missing a second marriage is a less big deal than skipping the first.
From NO1’s just-released daily wrap:
US preparing fresh Iran strikes over Memorial Day weekend. CBS reports the Trump administration was preparing Friday for a new round of military strikes, with no final decision reached. Trump and intelligence officials canceled weekend plans including Trump’s own son’s wedding. Qatari delegation instructed to leave Iran immediately. Iran shut down airspace. Massive GPS jamming detected across Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, and the Persian Gulf per DD Geopolitics. American fighter jets and refueling tankers spotted over Baghdad. Iran’s Hormuz Letter source claims IRGC’s “third struggle” plan will close Bab el-Mandeb and disable submarine internet cables in response to strikes assessed as “inevitable”.
And:
The removal of Tulsi Gabbard is a strong indication that the US is planning more, broader military action in the Persian Gulf
— Alon Mizrahi (@alon_mizrahi) May 22, 2026
Even Piers Morgan sees this coming:
All the signs are pointing to the U.S. and Israel launching another huge attack on Iran. I urge President @realDonaldTrump not to do it. This war’s been damaging enough without yet more mayhem being unleashed.
— Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) May 23, 2026
And from Simpilcius in US Admits No Hormuz Plan B as Preparations for Next Wave Begin:
Now Trump is reportedly getting ready for resumption of attacks, though some reports continue to plausibly claim he’s still clinging on for hope that Iran will send him some favorable “deal” terms. Trump knows there is little he can accomplish with further strikes, but it would be the only face-saving action he could possibly take to chip away at the now-universal skepticism of his “triumphant” operation.
Note that the rest of his post focuses on Iran’s threatened retaliation and Gulf State vulnerability, such at the full text of this Hormuz Letter tweet:
BREAKING: A source close to Iran’s Ghalibaf says Iran’s “third struggle” plan announced by the IRGC will close Bab el-Mandeb Strait “by fire” and disable the seven submarine internet cables under the Strait of Hormuz, in immediate response to upcoming US strikes that Iran has assessed as “inevitable,” for this weekend.
The source adds that Iran will also respond with “next-generation missiles and drones” firing hundreds daily at the Gulf energy infrastructure, and that the US and Israel are playing “Russian roulette” with the outcome being the “collapse of the global economy and unprecedented gas prices.”
Below is the afore-mentioned talk between Karen Kwiatkowski and Mario Nawfal. Kwiatkowski makes a lot of sound, experience-based observations; it is a shame she is less in circulation than some other ex-military talking heads:
On the economic front, yet more evidence of major US consumer stress. Per the Financial Times, in Walmart warns of petrol rationing as Iran war hits customers’ wallets, Walmart reports that consumers are self-rationing gas:
Walmart said higher petrol prices were leading stressed consumers to ration purchases at the pump and warned of inflation in its store aisles as the retail behemoth confronts a rise in energy costs caused by the war in Iran.
Customers visiting Walmart’s US petrol stations are buying less than 10 gallons per visit for the first time since 2022, when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine had driven up oil prices. “That’s an indication of stress,” said John David Rainey, chief financial officer, on a call discussing quarterly results with analysts on Thursday.
The largest US retailer’s vast trucking fleet was not left unscathed, as higher fuel costs shaved 2.5 percentage points off the company’s operating profit growth in the three months to the end of April. The resulting rise of 5 per cent left operating income at $7.5bn, falling short of analyst estimates.
With thousands of stores and hundreds of millions of customers, Walmart offers a window into the health of the US consumer at a time when elevated petrol prices and resurgent inflation are bringing strain. Walmart again benefited in the quarter from shoppers seeking out its low prices, with comparable sales at its US division rising 4.1 per cent, beating estimates.
“When I look at the consumer, especially here in the US, they’re telling us they’re feeling some pressure and they’re looking to Walmart for value,” John Furner, chief executive, told analysts.
And this chart should focus the mind:
🚨 UMich Consumer Sentiment revises to 44.8 from 48.2, a new all-time low. pic.twitter.com/7q8DrIka58
— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) May 22, 2026
Done for today! Let us hope that all this noise is a false positive or yet another Trump market manipulation scheme, and you don’t hear from me about Iran again until Tuesday.____
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