Trump appears to be trying to force kinetic action in the Iran war, with his own officials now openly resisting his announcement that he will send a convoy into the Strat of Hormuz . We had said one way out of this war might be a soft coup, in the form of military officials refusing to implement Trump’s orders and that could be what is happening now.1
First to the immediate developments, then to what seems to be (not) happening with the Iran negotiations. Note that any references to a 14 point plan from Iran are based on an Aljazeera report that Iran’s own foreign ministry said is incorrect, so the informational fog is very heavy on that front too.
To the Trump convoy gambit. Unlike other big Trump Truth Social pronouncements, it is difficult to find a reproduction of the tweet on Twitter:
Attempt by US & global governments at freeing ~2000 ships and ~20,000 seafarers from the Gulf
Probably the biggest fleet or convoy rescue / coordination effort since WWII
Reference to plume of shipshttps://t.co/qKtOOkMif4
Image: President Trump’s recent post pic.twitter.com/dbGt4Vw8mA
— Energy Blogger (@energy_blogger) May 3, 2026
More information from the BBC live feed:
US military says 15,000 personnel and 100 aircraft to support ‘Project Freedom’
We’ve also heard an update from US Central Command (Centcom) on how it will support the so-called “Project Freedom”.
“US Central Command forces will begin supporting Project Freedom, May 4, to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,” it says in a statement issued on Sunday.
This support includes 15,000 personnel, guided-missile destroyers and more than 100 aircraft.
Centcom says “a quarter of the world’s oil trade at sea and significant volumes of fuel and fertilizer products are transported through the strait”.
“Our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade,” adds Adm Brad Cooper, Centcom commander.
The predictable Iran reaction, via Gulf News:
Iran military says US forces will be attacked if they enter Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s military said Monday that US forces would be attacked if they entered the Strait of Hormuz, after US President Donald Trump announced Washington would begin escorting ships through the blocked waterway.
“We warn that any foreign armed force – especially the aggressive US military – if they intend to approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz, will be targeted and attacked,” said Major General Ali Abdollahi of the Iranian military’s central command, in a statement carried by state broadcaster IRIB.
“We have repeatedly stated that the security of the Strait of Hormuz is under the control of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and under all circumstances, any safe passage must be coordinated with these forces,” he added.
Then:
LOL
US Officials now desperately walking back Trump’s claims.
Says they will only “coordinate” telling the civilian ships the “safe lanes” to travel across the Strait by themselves.
Despite the fact that he threatened to use “force” against any interference.
🤣🤣🤣 https://t.co/n23RaDzLbT
— Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) May 3, 2026
Confirmed widely by the US press, with Aljazeera giving good one-stop shopping:
Trump’s Project Freedom ‘is not an escort mission’, US media say
US media outlets The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), CNN and Axios have emphasised Trump’s chosen word of “guide” rather than “escort” to describe how his new naval mission will work in the Strait of Hormuz.
The WSJ reported that US officials said the mechanism “doesn’t currently involve US Navy warships escorting vessels through the strait” while CNN quoted a US official as saying that the initiative is “not an escort mission”. It also said the US military will be “guiding stranded ships”.
Axios quoted a US official as saying that US Navy ships will be “in the vicinity” to prevent Iranian attacks on the commercial ships.
The WSJ also reported that European diplomats and shipowners have expressed doubts about the effectiveness of the mechanism with one shipowner saying being guided by a Western ship would likely attract Iranian fire.
CNN also said the plan “leaves a lot of unanswered questions” with one expert saying it is likely designed to make commercial ships “feel safe”.
Not hard to raise more doubts:
The Trump admin’s top water carrier reports that the US military will kindly inform tankers where mines are located, and the tankers will trust them and proceed ahead while ignoring incoming missile fire
Sounds like a plan https://t.co/kuzCu2VOmF
— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) May 4, 2026
An early tally confirms the skeptical view:
Number of ships that successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz and are now sailing out to the Arabian Sea: Zero
Number of ships hit for trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz: One
Just keeping the count here https://t.co/2wclRJ4obe pic.twitter.com/caS0hSQeb8
— JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) May 4, 2026
It is not hard to see why the Navy would be leery. They have put their ships way beyond Iran missile firing range for a good reason Moving any closer becomes a turkey shoot for Iran. If I were them, I would seek not to blow them up which creates US victimhood, (dead seamen!) and possible environmental damage via leaked fuel but instead maximize humiliation. One way to accomplish that would be to disable navigation by hitting propellers and rudders, which would turn these fancy warships into big barges that would eventually wash ashore.
The idea of the escort was so clearly nonsensical (we don’t have enough ships even to run a proper blockade and were unable to subdue the Houthis) that I thought this was at best a lame PR stunt, in that the humanitarian crisis is real even if the Trump scheme is destined to fail. It might be a gambit to move ships closer to try to do something less (but still) stupid, like try to take Qeshm Island or the three claimed by the UAE. Trump might have fantasized that the Iranians would stand down in the face of the “humanitarian” claim and the fact that talks are underway. Even though anyone with an operating brain cell can see that they are doomed, not just due to the complete lack of overlap in bargaining positions but also US duplicity and inability to conduct complex negotiations, Iran is still under considerable pressure to pursue this avenue from countries like Pakistan and China.
Another theory on what might be afoot:
Trump’s announced “escort” of ships thru Hormuz recalls the famous 1964 Tonkin Gulf incident …
A manufactured pretext for the United States to massively escalate its military involvement in the Vietnam War
Prepare for major escalation vs Iran https://t.co/xutaomuGZ9
— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) May 3, 2026
Now that we know this is Project Freedom not an actual escort, is the US hope that some US and/or Israel ships will try to make an escape and be attacked by Iran, providing a usable cause for outrage and escalation? The problem I have with analogies to the Gulf of Tonkin incident was to justify staring a war. The US has already done that. And it already has multiple pretext for escalation, from stopping non-existent nuclear weapons plans to getting control of the Strait of Hormuz. We’re even getting new ones:
So Trump is saying war should continue because scores must be settled for what Iran has “done to Humanity, and the World, for 47 years.” That is a new objective for this war and implies its beginning or end had nothing to do with the nuclear issue. It is also makes the case for… pic.twitter.com/FFLbgC6p3n
— Vali Nasr (@vali_nasr) May 3, 2026
So the conflict is to remedy decades of unspecified wrongs by Iran? Seriously?
Now perhaps Team Trump hopes that getting US seamen injured or killed, whether military or civilian, would generate outrage in the US and generate a tad more support for this generally not at all loved conflict. But with gas prices set to start a moon shot, any boost would be short-lived:
1/ This is what $200 per barrel of oil would mean for US gas prices, which currently average $4.30 per gallon. It could go much higher. As one analyst says, once oil stockpiles are functionally exhausted by the end of May, “price increases become exponential rather than linear.” https://t.co/wttIO4UWml pic.twitter.com/vWRP9WmXfJ
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) May 3, 2026
And:
This could be the most important chart right now. The days-on-hand inventory of commercial crude oil is plunging past minimum operational levels. The last time we saw anything approaching these conditions was 2008, when oil spiked to $147, which is $220 in today’s dollar value.… pic.twitter.com/V3CZL32TKy
— Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) May 3, 2026
One does have to point out that Iran has stuffed up with its handling of the ships bottled up in the Gulf. They are not all those connected to unfriendly countries; for instance, there are 70 Chinese and 7 Thai vessels trapped, and China has signaled to Thailand that it is frustrated. Iran has been astonishingly shambolic about Strait of Hormuz procedures. If the world economy is not to collapse, Iran (perhaps with Oman also operating a clearance route on its side of the Strait of Hormuz) needs to set up a highly efficient process for checking ships and taking payments and clearing them. It needs to be able to process over 100 per day. I see no evidence that Iran has taken the responsibilities that come with its assertion of sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz seriously. It did table and I believe passed legislation regarding the tolling operation. But (and readers are encouraged to correct me if needed) I see no sign that Iran has done much to put in place infrastructure, establish procedures, and assign personnel to ramp up processing of transiting vessels.
Iran has further fallen flat on the PR front by not providing high level information about the ships trapped in the Gulf (like roughly how many are connect to hostile states and thus will not be given any help2), particularly since most, perhaps all, are not being allowed to go into port for provisions and are getting water and food via boats. Even worse, it has not offered any assistance. The UN has sought to have these seamen evacuated but purportedly Iranian officials are refusing to address the issue and pointing fingers at the US and Israel.
With all that said, the US has still moved a lot of assets into the region, so talk of Project Freedom may be a diversion:
There is now heavy activity by US 135-KC and KC-46A refueling aircraft, more than 14 refueling aircraft over the Gulf. cc: @HamzaOday775 @alon_mizrahi @Kathleen_Tyson_ @les_politiques @enformasyon56 https://t.co/8aq4nYrbkW
— Ekka (@EwaEdyta) May 3, 2026
✈️⛽️🇺🇸 7x US Air Force KC-135R Stratotanker + P-8A Poseidon active in the Strait of Hormuz area.
Fighter jets (F-18s and possibly A-10s) are also airborne, from USS Lincoln and Al Dhafra Air Base. https://t.co/8tUoOLS3Mj pic.twitter.com/8ypytQbI0y
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) May 3, 2026
And the UAE is becoming more aggressive:
The UAE doubles down, risking the social contract
On May 3rd, Iran confirmed that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) used fighter jets to bomb Iranian territory.
This comes weeks after Iran downed at least four Chinese-made Wing Loong drones. At that time, Tehran was uncertain… pic.twitter.com/OhBpaBhvDe
— Patricia Marins (@pati_marins64) May 4, 2026
Iran acts as if something is afoot:
BREAKING: The IRGC has ordered all ships at Ras al Khaimah and Mina Saqr in the UAE to immediately move to Dubai, warning that “consequences are their responsibility if they do not comply,” per UKMTO.
The US has significant assets in Ras al Khaimah. Iran’s Foreign Minister…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) May 3, 2026
In a new post, Richard Pape described why escalation is likely. From What the First 60 Days Actually Changed—and Why the Next 30 Will Be Worse:
The Geopolitical Price of Failure: U.S. Authority Is Being Publicly Ignored
In previous crises — and even the US war against Iraq in 2003 — U.S. policy preferences structured the behavior of allies and adversaries alike.
That is no longer reliably true.
Requests from Washington for allied military support have gone unanswered or been explicitly rejected…
Loss of US authority is nowhere more evident than with Iran.
U.S. calls for direct negotiations with Iran have failed to produce compliance. Tehran is choosing when, where, and with whom it engages—and increasingly, that excludes Washington or appears to merely string it along.
Iran is not buckling, quiet quitting, or nervously hedging.
Iran is downgrading US power and showing the world that America is no longer the indispensable great power that commands authority, respect – or fear.
When major powers ignore your demands in real time, influence falls rapidly….
Another Desperate US Gamble?
Washington now confronts the classic escalation trap.
Regime-change bombing, strikes on military targets, and the blockade have not reduced Iran’s nuclear stockpile or missile operations. Diplomatic channels—from Oman to Pakistan to Russia—are operating on terms Tehran controls. U.S. requests for allied military support have been rebuffed, leaving unilateral escalation as the primary remaining instrument. Preparations for expanded strikes on infrastructure and discussion of securing nuclear sites point in that direction.
But escalation at this stage comes with reduced surprise, higher regional risk, and uncertain operational payoff. When coercion fails, great powers rarely step back.
They double down—often at worse odds.
Why Would Trump Take the Gamble?
Because great powers rarely accept total loss when high-risk options remain.
The classic case is Japan’s decision to attack the United States at Pearl Harbor….Tokyo’s leaders understood the enormous risks…
They attacked anyway.
Why? Because U.S. oil sanctions were strangling Japan’s war effort. If trends continued, Japan faced near-certain strategic defeat and likely regime collapse. Faced with that trajectory, leaders chose the least bad option: a high-risk gamble that might break U.S. resolve rather than accept certain failure.
On the negotiation front, we have repeatedly said they were destined to fail and that looks to be becoming official, at least for this attempt. Neither side had bona fide motives. Iran was pursuing this exercise to placate its allies and show it knows how to comport itself on the world stage; Trump was using the negotiations to try to keep paper oil prices contained, stock investors cheery, and profit bigly from trading in advance of his own announcements.
Macgregor has been accurate with telegraphic tweets like these in the past:
BREAKING: Talks have failed, posturing suggest imminent strike.
— Douglas Macgregor (@DougAMacgregor) May 4, 2026
In keeping:
There is no way the US and Iran reach a deal without significant concessions from Washington.
I do not see that as happening…
— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) May 3, 2026
The reporting on the negotiations has been a mess, perhaps reflecting the severity of the underlying out-trade. As we stressed, anyone who is still re-reporting on the Aljazeera 14 points is actively misleading. DropSite correctly warned that account was not verified:
⭕️ Al Jazeera Arabic Shares Details of Iran’s Three-Phase Proposal to End the War
Al Jazeera reports Iran has submitted a structured three-phase proposal to end the conflict. Drop Site News has not independently confirmed the reporting, and Iranian media have not yet published…
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 3, 2026
Soon after:
So, Iran’s Foreign Ministry totally rejects Al Jazeera’s report about details of Iranian proposal to the Trump regime. The ministry’s spokesman stresses that “no words about Iran’s nuclear program in that proposal….. Iran’s proposal focuses on the end of war”.
— Fereshteh Sadeghi فرشته صادقی 🟩 ☫ 🟥 (@fresh_sadegh) May 3, 2026
For the curious:
Summary of Iran’s amendment to the previously submitted proposal:
1. The agreement begins with ending the war regionally, including the lifting of the blockade and addressing the situation in Lebanon—with international guarantees.
2. Negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz will…
— Hassan Ahmadian حسن احمدیان (@hasanahmadian) May 3, 2026
ZOMG, despite the apparent negotiation shit-show, are the IRCG leaders showing genius? Read this carefully:
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it set a 30-day deadline for the US military to end its blockade of ports, adding President Trump “must choose between an impossible military operation or a bad deal”.
Trump says he’ll review the plan Iran sent via Pakistan but does not think he can make a deal.
1. Trump cannot stand to be dominated, which is what Iran is in the process of doing by getting control of the negotiating process and demanding that their terms are the basis for any talks. Oh, and by signaling that they are not very negotiable.
2. Trump cannot stand to be humiliated. Iran is rubbing his nose in that by saying either choice will be epically demeaning to Trump and the US.
3. Bonus points: this is phrased in simple Trump-y terms
So Iranians are trying to herd Trump to door #3! Throw up his hands and slam the door on the way out.
Now Trump may remain unduly hopeful about military action but Iran in “Bring it on” mode may stoke his TACO self-preservation reflex.
On the economic front, things are too quietly going from bad to worse:
NOBODY IS TELLING YOU HOW FUCKED THE FARMERS ARE IN AMERICA RIGHT NOW.
The Agriculture Secretary just confirmed it publicly.
1 in 4 American farmers has NO fertilizer secured for spring planting.
No fertilizer. No crops. No food.
Farm bankruptcies are up 46% in 2025.
160,000… pic.twitter.com/KntlOxOxQI
— 🇺🇸 Thomas A. Whitaker (@WhitakerTA_) May 1, 2026
🚜 Farms in the south are struggling:
78% of Southern farmers say they can’t afford all required fertilizer this year, the highest of any region. 
The South is exposed for two reasons: crop mix and pre-booking behavior.
Just 19% of Southern producers pre-booked fertilizer… pic.twitter.com/VrLXtKr601
— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) May 3, 2026
We’ve covered the fertilizer nightmare at Hormuz, but here’s the real gut-punch: our oil obsession blinds us to the actual falling domino.
. If war blocks the tankers, trucks idle, food rots in the fields, and cities starve. Even wealthy nations unravel fast when the wheels… pic.twitter.com/lhsi1btGrN
— Prof. Steve Keen (@ProfSteveKeen) May 2, 2026
A lead story over the weekend at the Financial Times:
Detroit carmakers have warned that the financial hit from higher commodity prices will rise to $5bn this year as the Middle East war strains the supply chains for materials from aluminium to plastics and paint…
They could be forced to cut vehicle discounts and raise prices if the conflict drags on for more than six months given their slim margins, according to analysts…
The estimated $5bn in additional costs from commodity inflation means that its impact will be equivalent to the $6bn hit the carmakers expect from higher US tariffs.
Since Donald Trump’s war with Iran disrupted global shipping by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, carmakers have been insulated from the immediate impact by fixed-price contracts with suppliers.
But if the conflict lasts another two months, more suppliers are expected to push for new terms, with those higher prices coming through in about six months.
China is not taking the latest US sanctions salvo (against five refineries) lying down. From NO1:
China invokes Blocking Statute for the first time ever. MOFCOM ordered all Chinese firms and individuals NOT to comply with US sanctions on 5 Chinese refineries including Hengli Petrochemical, calling them “illegal” extraterritorial overreach (People’s Daily, zerohedge). China buys ~90-99% of tracked Iranian oil exports and has instructed refineries to continue buying. This is a direct sanctions confrontation weeks before the Xi-Trump summit.
Back to the controversy over whether the very lame US blockade is nevertheless denting Iran oil shipments:
Twenty-five tankers departed Iran with crude oil during April, with seven redirected back to Iran by the United States from the Arabian Sea or Indian Ocean and two seized by the US in the Indian Ocean, TankerTrackers said on Sunday.
Only one of the tankers reached the Far East,…
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) May 3, 2026
This is worse than it looks. The US imposed its blockade on April 13. That means the blockade was not on in the first 12 days of April. While it seems to take about a day for ships to get from Iran to Pakistan, the flip side is that the Trump announcement of his blockade seemed impulsive, and so the Navy might not have had its act in gear (save for issuing warnings) in the first couple of days. So naively treating vessels leaving Iran in the first 12 days as not much or only barely exposed to the blockade is not unreasonable.
12/30 days in April is 40%. 60% of the 25 tankers that left Iran in April is 15. Stopping 7 out of 15 is not bad given the clearly inadequate amount of resources dedicated to this mission. But notice that for most, per this account, the US had only to bark and not take action.
Finally, Richard Medhust has some important broader observations on maritime and energy action by the US and its putative allies.
Mind you, this does not mean the grand plan will work (recall General Wesley Clark describing the US intent to defeat 7 states in 5 years, with the last being Iran). But at least some have an idea in mind:
The US are executing a global armed robbery of the world’s energy supply.
I’ve adapted my documentary, “Birth of the Petrogas-Dollar and the Pirate State,” into a forensic written investigation. This is the most detailed audit you will find anywhere on current US geostrategy.… pic.twitter.com/wym3cFmnwz
— Richard Medhurst (@richimedhurst) May 1, 2026
And some components do seem to be succeeding:
@richimedhurst has brought together the most comprehensive summary of global war and geoeconomics that leaves me stunned. He reveals the 21st century shaping up much like the 11th century: Viking raiders and pirates suborning client states to imperial tribute. https://t.co/skTxIF6kKF
— Kathleen Tyson (@Kathleen_Tyson_) May 2, 2026
All for today! See you tomorrow!
_____
1 This happened in Trump 1.0. Colonel Macgregor, then a Pentagon advisor, has recounted long form how Trump tried to order the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and papered it up properly. The armed services simply ignored him. Macgregor has also explained that a pullout in winter, when the insurgents were largely in the hills, could have been executed more cleanly than the one that eventually happened, IIRC in May.
2 Even then, Iran should figure out a way to have neutral powers come in and escort them to shore on the Iran side for interrogation and hopeful return to their home countries, in their ships if they are cleared. It is over my pay grade what to do with ships and crews that Iran deems as sus. Perhaps hold them (and be as nice as possible give the givens to the hapless crew) to be dealt with as part of war resolution? I assume Iran does not want to join the US in the piracy game.
And conditions are bad. From an end-of-March story in Politico:
As I write this, some 3,000 merchant ships [now 2,000] remain stuck in the Persian Gulf. Although Iran recently started letting a few of them transit the Strait of Hormuz, they have to do so through a safe corridor established by the government in Tehran. And that’s an option available only to a few ships, namely those from friendly countries like India.
For the remaining 20,000-plus seafarers, the terrifying wait that began on Feb. 28 continues. “We now have double digits in terms of fatalities,” said Joshua Hutchinson, chief commercial officer at the maritime risk company Ambrey. “And the people on board have families; they have children. Humans like them are the forgotten element in these situations of war.”
They are, indeed.
While the world — rightly — frets about oil prices, natural-gas prices, access to fertilizer and all the other economic consequences of the war in Iran, the seafarers trapped in the Persian Gulf face an increasingly desperate situation. And though the Gulf is indisputably more secure than the Strait of Hormuz, it is by no means safe: Some of the crew members who have been killed or injured since the hostilities began were on ships in the Gulf.
In fact, the situation is so perilous that it’s been impossible to evacuate some of the injured seafarers. A few have died awaiting treatment. As a result, some of the trapped ships now have deceased crew members on board….
And that’s not all. Some of the stranded ships are now starting to run out of food and other necessities. “It’s not as easy as people think to get resources to the ships,” explained Hutchinson. “And now we’re beginning to see pressure on supplies getting to the ships. The firms that deliver the supplies are local. Fuel is up from $700 per ton to over $2,000, and these firms have to secure the supplies in the first place, which isn’t easy when the Strait of Hormuz is closed. And in a situation like this, delivering the supplies to the trapped ships requires a lot of time and resources too.”
These ships are also carrying all manner of cargo — oil, gas and fertilizer, of course, but also perishable commodities and, most likely, even livestock. Imagine sitting on top of cargo that could explode at any moment — or die. “Some will be able to leave, but for the ones with U.S. and Israeli affiliation, there’s no way out,” Hutchinson noted.
