Iran’s proposal to share combat experiences against US forces with SCO allies has traders reevaluating the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire. The market for a ceasefire announcement by April 30 is at 1.1% YES, down from 3% yesterday and 16% a week ago.
Market reaction
Iran’s offer at the SCO summit strengthens anti-US military alignment and is dragging down the US-Iran ceasefire market. This coincides with Iran’s insistence that the US naval blockade violates the current truce, adding further downward pressure. The April 30 contract sits at rock-bottom levels.
Why it matters
For the US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, the “no meeting” odds are 22.2% YES, up from 16% yesterday. Iran choosing military alliances over diplomacy is bearish for direct negotiations with the US, pushing odds higher that no talks materialize by the deadline.
The ceasefire market has $17,092 in total USDC traded, and it takes just $1,875 to shift the price by 5 points. This is a thin market where a few large trades create outsized moves. The largest price move was a 3-point drop, consistent with trader skepticism about any near-term diplomatic progress.
What to watch
At 1¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire is declared by April 30, a 100x return. For that to pay off, a major diplomatic breakthrough would need to happen in the next 24 hours. Watch for statements from the SCO summit and any shifts in rhetoric from Trump or Iranian officials. Any softening could reverse the current direction.
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