Adding to concerns, Iran seized two ships in the strait on Wednesday, tightening control over the passage. The U.S. has continued its naval blockade on Iranian trade, while Iranian parliament speaker and lead negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated that a full ceasefire would only be meaningful if the blockade is lifted.
Crude oil price on April 23
Brent crude futures slipped 15 cents to $101.76 per barrel, after closing above $100 on Wednesday for the first time in over two weeks. West Texas Intermediate futures also edged lower by 14 cents to $92.82.On Wednesday, both benchmarks had surged more than $3, supported by larger-than-expected draws in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, along with continued deadlock in diplomatic negotiations.
Although U.S. President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire following mediation efforts by Pakistan, tensions remain unresolved. Iran and the U.S. are still limiting vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that previously handled about 20% of global oil and LNG flows before the conflict began in late February with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.Markets remain highly reactive to geopolitical signals, with price movements driven more by sentiment than any concrete improvement in supply. Limited vessel activity through the strait highlights the ongoing uncertainty. Even if tensions ease, a full normalization of flows is expected to take several months.Macquarie estimates that crude prices could remain supported in the $85 to $90 range in the near term, with a gradual rise towards $110 as supply conditions improve. It also cautioned that prolonged disruptions through April could push Brent prices as high as $150 per barrel.Analysts believe the market may be entering a phase of structurally higher prices. With the ceasefire viewed as temporary, a return to pre-conflict levels of $70 to $75 may not happen quickly. In the short term, prices are likely to move within a band of $80 to $85 on the downside and $95 to $100 and above on the upside.
Nuvama Institutional Equities added that an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries around 20 million barrels per day, could drive crude prices into the $110 to $150 range.
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