Private payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks, ADP reports

The U.S. labor market is showing further signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs has picked up over the past four weeks, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Tuesday.

Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, ADP said as part of a running update it has been providing. That’s an acceleration from the 2,500 jobs a week lost in the last update a week ago.

With the government shutdown still impacting data releases, alternative information like ADP’s has been filling in the blanks on the economic picture.

Government agencies such as the Bureaus of Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis have released revised schedules, but critical reports such as the monthly nonfarm payrolls count won’t come out until December.

Policymakers at the Federal Reserve won’t have much of the usual data they use to make forecasts when they meet again Dec. 9-10. However, in recent days, several officials have advocated for additional interest rate cuts, causing the market to recalibrate expectations to now expecting a reduction at next month’s meeting.

“With the next jobs report now scheduled for December 16 and CPI for December 18, there is little on the calendar to derail a cut on December 10,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a client note Sunday.

When the releases do start rolling out, Hatzius said he expects that “alternative indicators show renewed job losses in October” even though the BLS last week reported better-than-expected 119,000 growth in payrolls for September.

The Goldman team expects the Fed to react with a cut in December and two more quarter percentage point reductions in 2026.