Will Nifty finally cross 26,277? 6 triggers that could break the 421-day deadlock

Nifty ended the week with gains of 0.6%, supported by buying in IT, auto, and banking stocks. The index came within sniffing distance of its lifetime peak of 26,277, hit on September 27, 2024, touching 26,246.65 on Thursday. Investors will hope the benchmark finally crosses this level, which has remained elusive for 421 days, when markets reopen on Monday. A host of key domestic and global events lined up for the week are likely to influence market sentiment.

On Friday, Nifty closed 124 points, or 0.47%, lower to end the day at 26,068.15.

Commenting on current trends, Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart, said Nifty will be driven primarily by global cues this week as no major domestic macro announcements are scheduled. “This leaves the Indian equity market more sensitive to international developments, currency movements, and FII activity,” he noted.

Core PPI, retail sales, and the October PCE inflation report will be key signals. Any upside surprise could push U.S. Treasury yields higher and strengthen the dollar—typically triggering FII outflows, Gour said. He added that the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. on Thursday will lead to thin global liquidity.

Factors likely to influence market movement when trading resumes this week:

1. US marketsIndian markets are expected to take cues from U.S. equities, which ended with strong gains on Friday after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he sees “room for a further adjustment” in policy rates, signalling possible support for another cut at the Fed’s meeting next month.Williams’ comments, made at a conference in Chile, triggered a rally on Wall Street, the Associated Press reported.The Dow 30 closed at 46,245.40, up 493.15 points or 1.08%, while the S&P 500 gained 64.23 points or 0.98% to end at 6,602.99. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 22,273.10, rising 195.04 points or 0.88%.

2. Corporate ActionAt least six stocks will be in focus this week as they trade ex-dividend: Ingersoll-Rand (India), Power Finance Corporation (PFC), Shyamkamal Investments, AK Capital Services and Meera Industries. Meanwhile, HDFC Asset Management Company and Thyrocare Technologies will trade ex-bonus next week, with record dates set for Wednesday, November 26, and Friday, November 28, respectively, to determine shareholder eligibility for bonus shares.

Also Read: Corporate actions: HDFC AMC, Thyrocare Technologies shares to trade ex-bonus next week. Check details

Infosys, India’s second-largest IT services company, will close its Rs 18,000 crore share buyback window on Wednesday, November 26.

3) FII/DII actionForeign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net sellers last week, offloading Indian equities worth Rs 188 crore. On Friday alone, they sold shares worth Rs 1,766.05 crore. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 3,161.61 crore.

Also Read: FII selling moderates to Rs 3,788 crore in Nov so far, 2025 outflows at Rs 1.43 lakh cr. These 3 trends to suggest reversal

4. Technical FactorsDecoding Nifty’s technical setup, Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Equity Research at Centrum Broking, said the index continues to form higher tops and higher bottoms and is attempting to break past its immediate resistance at 26,200, but profit booking at higher levels is capping the upside.

“Momentum indicators and oscillators remain in buy mode on both daily and weekly charts. A consolidation phase is likely before the next leg up, with Nifty expected to move within a broader range of 25,800–26,200. The 21-DMA near 25,840 is likely to act as key support. A breakout above the recent swing high could open the doors to fresh record levels around 26,300. However, the volatility index jumping over 10% and crossing 13 is a concern—it needs to cool below 12.5 for bulls to regain firm control,” Jain said.

5) Rupee vs DollarThe Indian rupee’s weakness continues to weigh on domestic equity markets. On Friday, the INR hit a fresh lifetime low of 89.65 against the US dollar before closing at 89.61, pressured by US sanctions on certain Indian firms linked to the Iran oil trade.

The near-term outlook remains challenging amid a resurgent US dollar, with the DXY climbing back above the 100 mark. The dollar index has gained 0.9% over the past five sessions, extending its three-month advance to 2.5%.

The rupee, down 4.6% against the greenback so far this year, may weaken further, said Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth Global Research. Fading expectations of a December rate cut by the US Federal Reserve have bolstered the dollar’s strength over the past three months.

Gupta expects the rupee to test the 90 level against the dollar in the near term. For the DXY, a rise to 102–103 cannot be ruled out, he added.

Read more: US sanctions, trade-deal delays drag rupee to new record low at 89.61. Down 4.6% this year, what’s next?

6) IPO watchIn the primary market, two stocks are set to debut on exchanges this week. Sudeep Pharma, whose IPO closes on Tuesday, November 25, is expected to list on Friday, November 28, while Excelsoft Technologies will debut on Wednesday, November 26. The Street will track these listings closely, given the strong recent debuts of Billionbrains Garage Ventures (Groww), Pine Labs and PhysicsWallah.

Three SME issues will also open for subscription this week. SSMD Agrotech India will open its books on November 25, aiming to raise Rs 34.09 crore through a price band of Rs 114–121 per share; the issue closes on November 27. Mother Nutri Foods IPO will launch on November 26 with plans to raise Rs 39.59 crore at a price band of Rs 111–117 per share. KK Silk Mills is the third issue, with a price band set at Rs 36–38 per share.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)