“We believe that at the current price, the market is valuing only 0.3x EV/GOV for its QC business versus 0.9x for Eternal. In our view, disciplined execution and improving visibility on breakeven will be key catalysts for the stock. However, increased competition in the QC business due to aggressive expansion by other players could delay the company’s path to profitability,” said Swiggy’s Abhishek Bhandari.
He added that Swiggy’s ongoing product innovations, such as Bolt, a 10-minute quick delivery service that accounts for ~12% of overall deliveries, continue to help the company improve market share against Zomato.
“We expect a ~100 basis point market share increase for Swiggy in FY26F. Longer term, as scale builds, we expect contribution margin and adjusted EBITDA margin (as a % of gross order value, or GOV) to converge for the two players. We forecast a ~20% CAGR in GOV for Swiggy’s FD business for FY25–27F, with ~120bp improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin over the same period,” Nomura added.
Nomura also noted that the peak of dark store expansion is likely behind Swiggy, with the count nearly doubling to 1,021 by end-FY25.
Last week, Motilal Oswal upgraded its rating on Swiggy to ‘BUY’, assigning a target price of Rs 560.“Food delivery growth slowed due to weak consumption and macro pressures, while QC profitability came under strain from heightened competition, accelerated dark store rollouts, and elevated customer acquisition costs. We now believe the cycle is turning,” Motilal Oswal said.Betting on multiple tailwinds ahead, the brokerage raised FD growth estimates for both Zomato and Swiggy to 21–23% for FY26–27 (from 19–20% earlier) and valued FD businesses at 35x FY27E adjusted EBITDA (up from 27x earlier).
Swiggy shares were trading about 1% higher at Rs 442 on BSE on Monday morning, still down 28% from their peak of Rs 617.
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