The job market is freezing up. While we’re not yet seeing a trend toward widespread layoffs, it is increasingly difficult to get hired. As we saw last week here in Power&Market, hires are becoming increasingly rare. And, while new layoffs may be moving sideways—and not swiftly rising—the number of people who remain unemployed for a significant period after a layoff is rising.
For example, according to new unemployment numbers released today, “continuing claims” for unemployment insurance hit another new cycle high during the week of June 21.
The four-week moving average shows the same trend:
With 1.95 million workers continuing on the unemployment rolls, the total is at the highest since the covid panic. If we exclude the covid period, we’re looking at the highest since March 2018:
Alicia Wallace provides a summary at CNN:
Layoffs may not be mounting, but it’s getting harder to find a job in a labor market where hiring is “anemic” as tariff-driven economic uncertainty has put a chill on some employers.
New data released Thursday showed that initial claims for unemployment benefits — considered a proxy for layoffs — fell last week. However, the number of recurring claims made by people who already have filed for unemployment rose to their highest level since November 2021.
There were an estimated 227,000 first-time applications for unemployment insurance made during the week that ended on July 5. That’s down 5,000 claims from the prior week.
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The US labor market has cooled significantly during the past year, and the pullback in job growth has largely been attributed to employers reining in hiring rather than conducting mass layoffs.
That trend, however, has meant that it’s taken longer for unemployed people to find work. Continuing claims, which are filed by people who have received jobless benefits for at least one week, once again but up against three-and-a-half-year highs.
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“It’s difficult to find a new job right now. Young people are struggling to get their first jobs and anyone who has been laid off is having a hard time landing their next role,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote Thursday. “The labor market is frozen outside of healthcare, education and law enforcement jobs. Hiring is anemic in other sectors as companies remain cautious in this environment.”
