Redfin Joins the Parade of Housing Bears—How Does Their Prediction Stack Up?

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In This Article

Don’t expect your home equity to increase this year. That’s the forecast from brokerage and listings site Redfin, which, along with Zillow, predicts that house prices are expected to remain flat or drop by about 1% by year-end.

The main reason for the stagnation is mortgage rates, which Redfin predicts will remain elevated at around 7% for much of the year. For investors banking on appreciation, as in previous years, when house prices have generally risen since 2012, it marks a stark difference from the post-pandemic year, when a lack of inventory guaranteed that prices would rise. Now, however, with mortgage rates showing no signs of easing, there are more sellers than buyers.

The decline in home prices has been ongoing for the last 12 months, with prices falling 1.1% year over year in April to a six-month low, according to Redfin. Houses that sold took five days longer—around 45 days in total—than a year earlier. Further easing pressure on rising prices was an increase in inventory by 16.7% year over year to its highest level in five years, with new listings up 8.6%.

Economic Uncertainty Rules the Day

Economic uncertainty has not helped matters, and the country finds itself in a position that seemed unthinkable in the days of bidding wars and soaring prices that preceded and followed the pandemic lockdown. For the first time in years, buyers are in a position to negotiate on house prices, while sellers must get a reality check and drop prices to secure offers.

Corey Stambaugh, a Redfin Premier agent in North Carolina, said in the May 22 press release:

“A lot of the people selling right now bought in 2021 or 2022, when home prices were near their height. Even though we advise them to list at today’s market value, a lot of them decide to list high to recoup their money. But those sellers face reality once their home has been sitting for a couple of weeks without any offers. At that point, they’re willing to seriously consider low offers and even throw in some concessions, because they’d rather sell today than face the uncertainty of tomorrow.”

Parts of the Country Differ

The Sunbelt has seen the greatest amount of new construction recently and thus has experienced the most declines, according to the Wall Street Journal. In contrast, prices in the Northeast and Midwest have continued to rise. Overall, the Journal reported that the country witnessed the slowest sales pace for any April in 16 years.

How Investors Can Win In This Market

The advantage homebuyers—whether investors or owner-occupants—have in this market is the potential to get a bargain. “We know there’s room to negotiate right now, so that’s the best way to take advantage of the changing market,” Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, said in the company’s May 22 press release. “And the sooner you buy, the sooner you start to build equity.”

However, how an investor finances their deal will make all the difference between securing a solid long-term investment and skirting the precipice of financial instability, as there is little to no chance of cash flow with an interest rate of 7% unless a buyer secures an incredible discount.

An investor who buys a house they can barely afford to make the mortgage payments on in the hope of achieving appreciation and refinancing when rates fall is asking for trouble. Rather, buying with all cash, when possible, is the safest move and will offer buyers the most negotiating power.

Baby Boomers Are Having Their Moment

It’s hardly surprising that the most conservative buying demographic—baby boomers—are buying the most homes in America at the moment, according to the National Association of Realtors’ 2025 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report. Baby Boomers

accounted for 42% of U.S. home sales between July 2023 and July 2024, a demographic traditionally associated with millennials.

That’s because older Americans have money sitting on the sidelines for this very situation. They are not at an age when they want to get a mortgage. First-time buyers are “facing limited inventory, housing affordability challenges, and having difficulty saving for a down payment,” Brandi Snowden, director of member and consumer survey research at NAR, said in a New York Times article about the report.

The Ongoing Issue of Tariffs

Although the Trump administration has recently backtracked on some of its tariff threats, their effect is still unsettling to the housing market by driving up the price of goods and stopping the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates. The fact is, Redfin says, tariffs on China are still three times higher than they were at the start of the year, and they are in effect in other countries, forcing up the price of goods.

With interest rates likely to remain high, Dave Ramsey, whose conservative approach to real estate investing often clashes with that of leverage-happy investors, feels that the tariff issue needs to be resolved before rates fall and the housing market loosens.

Final Thoughts

Although there’s a lot to be frustrated about in the current housing market, including high interest rates and a lack of buyers, it’s also a marked difference from 2022, when buyers were abundant, but houses were not. If you are looking to buy or sell in the Midwest and Northeast, you might still have some competition, but in Florida, Texas, and other Sunbelt markets, if you have cash, you can basically have your pick at a discounted price.

Now is the time when fortunes are made, and homes are lost. They are made for people sitting on cash. Properties are at risk for investors who feel they can use old-school techniques like BRRRRing and leveraging, putting up with zero cash flow without much in the way of savings to back them up when problems inevitably occur.

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