China’s strategy, so far, has been to court countries from the European Union to Latin America, in a bid to find new markets for exports targeted by Trump’s 145% tariff on the world’s No. 2 economy. While Trump is advancing an “America First” foreign policy to assert US global dominance, Beijing has been casting itself as the more stable superpower through a barrage of slick propaganda videos and diplomatic outreach to nations caught off guard by US actions.
However, images of Xi admiring Putin’s military power weeks after Russian forces bombed Ukrainian playgrounds, and as Moscow resists US proposals for a peace deal in Ukraine, will amplify concerns among some countries about moving closer to Beijing. European officials are fiercely opposed to China’s support of Russia despite its war in Ukraine, while Asian nations from Japan to Vietnam are wary of Beijing’s own territorial ambitions.Xi will headline a line-up of Global South leaders at the Friday parade, including Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro — a reminder that many nations have upheld ties with Russia. With Trump saying this week the first trade deals could come in days, China’s top leader will have the chance to warn other leaders against striking pacts that sell out Beijing.The trip also takes place as both Russia and China face fresh economic challenges. For Beijing, Trump’s tariffs are biting, with factory activity last month taking a hit, giving its neighbor’s imports added importance. Russia, one of the few countries to escape “reciprocal tariffs” amid sweeping sanctions on its economy, is facing headwinds from Europe’s plan to sever gas links with the country, and its fourth year of funding a grinding war.
The Chinese leader will likely be looking to Putin for more political support after a BRICS meeting of emerging market nations last month avoided mentioning Trump or the US by name, despite China’s indications it wanted to leverage the group to push back against Washington.
Xi’s parade attendance is a sign of “solidarity with Russia,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, which advises the Kremlin. “This shows the partnership between Russia and China is developing regardless of Washington’s efforts,” he added.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has dismissed speculation the Trump administration’s decision to revive long-halted talks with Moscow, in order to strike a peace deal, are an attempt to peel Russia away from China.
Terms being discussed between Moscow and the US include a frozen conflict that would grant Russia de facto control of territory in eastern and southern Ukraine that it seized in the war — a plan that largely matches a proposal Beijing suggested years ago, handing Xi an ideological win.
Despite that, a think tank affiliated with China’s Ministry of State Security in a recent commentary appeared to signal some discomfort in how negotiations were unfolding — seemingly laying that criticism at Trump’s door. Direct talks might accelerate a deal, it said, but bypassing multilateral institutions “will lead to further fragmentation of the global order.”
BloombergA separate report by the same think tank gave a gloomy assessment of Russia’s economy, highlighting problems such as a debt-pile up, a labor shortage and inflation. The researchers didn’t speculate on what that could mean for China. While a weaker Russia might give Xi more leverage, there is also the possibility that a Putin under pressure moves closer to the US.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, unprecedented Western sanctions have forced Moscow to increase its exports toward China. Bilateral trade hit a new record of $245 billion in 2024, up 68% from 2021, according to Chinese customs data.
The speed of that growth, however, has tapered off since a mid-2024 peak, with exports in the first quarter the lowest since mid-2022, the immediate aftermath of the invasion. Part of that is due to a slump in Russian imports of Chinese cars, which soared in popularity after foreign firms exited. That trend collapsed in recent months, partly due to Russian tax hikes.
Bloomberg“Moscow wanting more investment as opposed to just exports from China is understandable,” said John Gong, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing who has worked as a consultant for China’s Commerce Ministry. But without a more secure environment in Russia, it’s a hard proposition for many Chinese investors, he added.
Still, with Putin now being courted by Trump, Xi might offer some more carrots during this trip, according to Neil Thomas, a fellow for Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. “Maybe this is when Beijing decides to play nice on a couple of things that Russia wants, like the Power of Siberia 2,” he said.
Russia has been pushing to secure China’s agreement for a large gas pipeline, Power of Siberia 2, which would run through Mongolia. Beijing has been hesitant to finalize an agreement, on the grounds it isn’t in urgent need of additional fuel and prefers to maintain a variety of supply options, without relying on a single country.
Any tensions brought about by a Trump team-brokered end to the war in Ukraine, or slowing trade between the two sides, appear out-weighed by the joint goal of challenging US power on the world stage.
Ahead of Xi’s visit, Putin highlighted Russia’s “strategic” ties with China in a documentary broadcast on Russian state television May 4. “Turbulence in the world has not diminished, but only increased, and we have such reliable, stable relations that the very fact of their existence strengthens global stability,” he said.
China and Russia want to set a new model of great power relations, said Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University and former diplomat seen as close to the government in Beijing.
“The US system is more led by the US, it’s not equal, it’s not inclusive,” he said. “China and Russia always need each other to support the multipolar world.”
