CEOs think the U.S. is ‘probably in a recession right now,’ says BlackRock’s Larry Fink

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said Monday that many business leaders believe the United States economy is already in a significant downturn.

“Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now,” Fink said at an event for the Economic Club of New York.

“One CEO specifically said the airline industry is a proverbial bird in a coal mine — canary in the coal mine — and I was told that the canary is sick already,” Fink added.

The asset management executive also said that he thinks the tariff policies of President Donald Trump could put upward pressure on inflation and make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, as the central bank often does during recessions.

“This notion that the Federal Reserve is going to ease four times this year, I see zero chance of that. I’m much more worried that we could have elevated inflation that’s going to bring rates up much higher than they are today,” Fink said.

Pricing in the fed funds futures market currently suggests that traders expect the central bank to lower its benchmark interest rate by at least 1 percentage point by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool, which could be four cuts of 0.25 percentage point.

BlackRock as a firm held more than $11 trillion in assets as of the end of 2024, spread across public and private investments.

Fink’s comments were broadcast on Bloomberg Television.

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