Bitcoin could enter a period of sideways movement following a court decision on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, but that’s not necessarily a bearish signal, according to a crypto analyst.
“While the recent surge to over $111,000 was notable, the current price action suggests a phase of consolidation rather than an imminent breakout,” onchain options protocol Derive founder Nick Forster told Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin consolidation will help market “digest recent gains”
Forster argued that a consolidation phase could be “a healthy pause” before another “significant upward movement.” He said that this pause will give “the market time to digest recent gains and gear up for the next phase.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is up 11.59% over the past 30 days, reaching a new all-time high of $111,970 on May 22 before pulling back to around $105,976 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.
What the next phase may be is uncertain. Bitcoin researcher Sminston With said BTC could gain 100% to 200%, with a cycle peak between $220,000 and $330,000. Meanwhile, crypto trader Apsk32 said a more reasonable target for 2025 would see Bitcoin reach $220,000.
Forster said the US Court of International Trade’s May 28 decision to block Trump’s sweeping tariffs as he exceeded his authority means that “the immediate concern of trade-induced inflation has been alleviated.”
However, the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled on May 29 that Trump could temporarily continue with his tariff regime under an emergency powers law while he appeals the trade court’s decision.
Forster added that the US Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision on June 18 will “be pivotal.”
Q3 may surprise this year
Forster said that while the third quarter has historically been a “weaker period” for Bitcoin, it may be a different scenario in 2025.
“The potential for favorable regulatory developments and continued institutional interest may support stronger performance in Q3,” Forster said.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 6.03% gain in Q3, while Q4 has historically been its strongest quarter, delivering an average return of 85.42%, according to CoinGlass data.
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Forster also pointed to the significant amount of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which haven’t been reflected in the spot price.
“Despite significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, notably over $6.2 billion into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust in May, Bitcoin’s price hasn’t experienced a commensurate rise,” Forster said.
In the trading week ending May 23 alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total of $2.75 billion in inflows.
“This phenomenon can be attributed to the nature of ETF investments, which often involve institutional investors seeking exposure without immediate impact on spot market prices,” he added.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
