We came across a bullish thesis on SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) on Substack by Data Driven Investing. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SOFI. SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI)’s share was trading at $13.20 as of April 28th. SOFI’s trailing and forward P/E were 33.85 and 44.84 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
A financial services team at work reviewing customer data on their digital bank.
SoFi’s upcoming earnings report marks a notable shift from the uncertainty of 2022–2023 to growing investor optimism, driven by favorable data and lowered expectations. The company, once mired in fears over delinquencies and fair value accounting, now benefits from a positive macro backdrop and strategic positioning, setting the stage for a potential earnings beat. March website traffic surged to an all-time high of 21.19 million visits—fueled by effective marketing through high-profile partnerships like the NBA and TGL—and supports speculation that SoFi added a record 903,000 new members this quarter. That figure, if confirmed, would mark the first time SoFi surpasses 900k net adds in a single quarter, signaling accelerating user growth as the company leans into reinvestment for 2025.
On the lending front, SoFi’s performance is poised to impress despite some uncertainty around timing of the Blue Owl Capital partnership. The $5 billion agreement, confirmed in March, could drive originations between $130M and $625M, contributing meaningfully to record estimated originations of $5.4B to $6.0B this quarter. Student and home loans are expected to moderate slightly, reflecting macro headwinds, but still contribute meaningfully. Meanwhile, nearly 90% of SoFi’s loans are now deposit-funded, and the company has lowered its APY from 4.6% to 3.8%, a move that enhances net interest margin while maintaining deposit growth. The APY cut alone is projected to generate $17M in additional revenue, supporting lending revenue growth from $423M to $440M sequentially.
SoFi’s Financial Services segment continues to grow steadily, benefiting from Lending-as-a-Platform (LPB) momentum, falling deposit costs, rising average revenue per user, and broader ecosystem stickiness. Financial Services revenue is projected to rise by $20M to $277.2M, with further upside if LPB initiatives launched early in Q1. While the Technology Platform segment remains muted at a projected $105M, green shoots of recovery are emerging. Combined, this supports an adjusted net revenue forecast of $782M—far exceeding the company’s $735M guide and Street consensus of $739M—representing 34.7% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA is expected at $213M, above both internal and external forecasts, and GAAP net income is forecasted at $0.05 per share versus consensus at $0.03. Though SoFi may again guide conservatively for Q2, the backdrop of member growth, improved margins, and cross-sell potential suggest continued momentum. Regardless of short-term stock fluctuations, SoFi’s fundamentals remain strong, offering a compelling blend of high growth, operational discipline, and long-term upside.
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